July 2025 Home Prices Show Gains in Some Cities While Others Face Declines

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According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, “the value of single-family homes in the U.S. as measured by repeat transactions rose 1.7% in July compared to a year earlier.” This marks a slowdown from June’s 1.9% increase and represents the lowest annual gain since 2023.

What does this mean? National home values are growing, but the pace has slowed, and after accounting for inflation, many homeowners are actually seeing real wealth decline.

Cities Facing Declines in Home Values

Among the 20 major metros tracked by Case-Shiller, “home values continued to fall on an annual basis in seven: Tampa, San Francisco, Miami, Dallas, Phoenix, San Diego, and Denver.” These markets were once booming during the pandemic era, but affordability pressures and high inventories are driving prices downward.

Meanwhile, New York, Chicago, and Cleveland are leading growth, with annual gains of 6.4%, 6.2%, and 4.5%, respectively.

Inflation Outpaces Housing Gains

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index revealed that home price growth is no longer keeping up with inflation. In July, values increased 1.7% year over year, but inflation during the same period ran at 2.7%. This gap means that while homeowners may have seen modest nominal gains, the real value of their housing wealth has actually declined. In fact, July marked the third straight month where inflation outpaced price growth, underscoring how quickly the market has shifted from the rapid equity gains of the pandemic era to a period of shrinking real returns.

Regional Trends Show Sharp Divide Across the U.S.

The Case-Shiller report pointed to a growing split in housing markets. Sun Belt metros in the South and West are cooling quickly as higher inventories and stretched affordability weigh on demand. In contrast, the Midwest and Northeast are now driving national price growth, supported by stronger affordability and stable local economies. Cities such as San Francisco and Phoenix are experiencing corrections, while more budget-friendly markets like Cleveland and Chicago are emerging as leaders in year-over-year gains.

Bottomline

For Orange County buyers and sellers, these trends matter. While some markets across the South and West are softening, demand in desirable areas like Orange County remains steady, though influenced by national slowdowns. If you’re considering buying or selling here, now is the time to align with an experienced real estate partner who can help you navigate the changing market. At Whitestone Real Estate, I specialize in guiding clients through every stage of the journey—whether you’re building wealth through property, finding your dream home, or preparing to sell strategically. Let’s connect today and make your next move with confidence.

Reference: Griffith, K. (2025, September 30). Home values rise slightly in July nationwide but drop in these 7 major cities. Realtor.com.