Revisions in 2023 Expert Home Price Predictions Signal Resilience in the Housing Market

Lisa Mailhot  |  September 5, 2023

Buyers

Revisions in 2023 Expert Home Price Predictions Signal Resilience in the Housing Market

 

Towards the conclusion of the previous year, numerous reports circulated, predicting a substantial decline in home prices for 2023. These forecasts ignited widespread concern and raised questions about the possibility of a housing market crash akin to the 2008 recession. However, it turns out that these headlines missed the mark.

Despite a slight correction in home prices following the meteoric rise during the 'unicorn' years, the national housing market did not experience a catastrophic collapse. In fact, home prices exhibited far more resilience than initially anticipated.

Let's delve into some expert predictions made late last year and compare them to their most recent projections, revealing that even the experts acknowledge their earlier pessimism.

Expert Forecasts for Home Prices: Then vs. Now

This visual representation showcases the 2023 home price forecasts from seven reputable organizations. It presents their original 2023 predictions, released in late 2022, regarding the expected direction of home prices by the end of the current year, along with their most recent revised forecasts (as depicted in the chart below):

As indicated by the red bars in the middle column, all initial forecasts foresaw a decline in home prices. However, a glance at the right column reveals that these experts have since adjusted their year-end projections to indicate either stable prices or positive growth. This marks a significant departure from their initial pessimistic outlook.

Several factors contribute to the resilience of home prices against a downturn. As articulated by Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American:

“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”

Anticipating Future Developments to Stay Informed

Expect misleading media coverage regarding home prices in the months ahead, primarily due to the seasonality of home price appreciation. The media is likely to misinterpret this pattern. Here's what you should be aware of to stay ahead of the next wave of negative headlines.

As the activity in the housing market naturally slows towards the end of the year (as is customary), home price growth will also decelerate. However, this should not be confused with a decline in prices; rather, it indicates that prices are not rising as swiftly as during the peak homebuying season.

In essence, a reduction in the rate of price appreciation should not be equated with a drop in home prices.

Bottom Line

Headlines can wield influence, even when they do not align with reality. Despite media claims that home prices would significantly decline at the close of the previous year, such an outcome did not materialize. Let's connect, so you can rely on a trustworthy resource to help you distinguish facts from fiction through dependable data.

RECENT BLOG POSTS

Buyers Set the Pace But Are Sellers Keeping Up?

Southern California’s housing market is cooling in mid-2025, with rising inventory and more price cuts across Newport Beach and Orange County. Buyers are gaining contr… Read more

From Corona to San Clemente: Navigating the Southern California Real Estate Market in Q2 2025

Explore the Southern California real estate market in Q2 2025 with insights on inventory trends, price changes, and buyer behavior in cities like Corona, Costa Mesa, D… Read more

Mortgage Rates Drop, Boosting Homebuyers' Purchasing Power

As mortgage rates drop to their lowest level in months, homebuyers are gaining more purchasing power. Discover how this shift is benefiting house hunters and what it m… Read more

California Eases Building Rules to Tackle Housing Crisis

California is tackling its housing crisis by rolling back the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), long criticized for stalling new developments. This game-cha… Read more

Understanding Current Housing Market Trends

The housing market is experiencing some noticeable changes, from fewer new listings to a drop in buyer activity. In this blog, we dive into the latest market shifts, w… Read more

US Median Home Prices Hit Record High

The median sales price of a U.S. home has surged to a record high of $396,500, but with more homes on the market, buyers are in a stronger position to negotiate. Learn… Read more

Mortgage Applications Rise Slightly After Recent Decline

Mortgage applications have increased by 1.1% following a decline the previous week, signaling some shifts in the housing market. In this blog, we explore the latest mo… Read more

Longtime Homeowner? This Hidden Tax Could Cost You Thousands

Many longtime homeowners in Orange County are sitting on a hidden tax burden due to outdated capital gains rules that haven’t changed since 1997. Learn how this overlo… Read more

Home Prices Slow as Buyers Gain Power

May 2025 saw home prices at seasonal highs, but growth has nearly stalled as market dynamics shift. With more listings than buyers, slower sales, and increased negotia… Read more

We are excited to assist you in finding your perfect home

Let's find a time that suits you best to chat about your goals, show you how we work, and figure out how we can help you the most