Lisa Mailhot | May 11, 2023
Buyers
Everywhere you look, people are talking about a potential recession. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a house, this may leave you wondering if your plans are still a wise move. To help ease your mind, experts are saying that if we do officially enter a recession, it’ll be mild and short. As the Federal Reserve explained in their March meeting:
“. . . the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”
While a recession may be on the horizon, it won’t be one for the housing market record books like the crash in 2008. What we have to remember is that a recession doesn’t always lead to a housing crisis.
To prove it, let’s look at the historical data of what happened in real estate during previous recessions. That way you know why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession could mean for the housing market today.
To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six of them. So historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will always fall.
Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession will be a repeat of what happened to housing then. But today’s housing market isn’t about to crash because the fundamentals of the market are different than they were in 2008. Back then, one of the big reasons why prices fell was because there was a surplus of homes for sale at the same time distressed properties flooded the market. Today, the number of homes for sale is low, so while home prices may see slight declines in some areas and slight gains in others, a crash simply isn’t in the cards.
What a recession really means for the housing market is falling mortgage rates. As the graph below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.
Bankrate explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:
“During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.”
This year, mortgage rates have been quite volatile as they’ve responded to high inflation. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered between roughly 6-7%, and that’s impacted affordability for many potential homebuyers.
But, if there is a recession, history tells us mortgage rates may fall below that threshold, even though the days of 3% are behind us.
You don’t need to fear what a recession means for the housing market. If we do have a recession, experts say it will be mild and short, and history shows it also means mortgage rates go down.
In the aftermath of devastating LA wildfires, State Farm has requested a 22% insurance rate hike in California. Discover how this could impact homeowners, why wildfire… Read more
With rental market growth set to hit $5.35 trillion globally by 2025, investors can boost returns by diversifying portfolios, leveraging tech, and adopting proactive m… Read more
Baby boomers are holding tight to their real estate and assets, delaying the long-anticipated "Great Wealth Transfer." Learn how this affects millennials, Gen Xers, an… Read more
New-home sales defied expectations in December, rising 3.6% despite mortgage rates hovering around 7%. With builders offering incentives and inventory rising, now migh… Read more
As cities struggle with rising rents, micro-units are emerging as a practical solution for affordability and quality living. These compact, well-designed apartments of… Read more
Extreme weather is driving up home insurance premiums, with costs soaring 33% in recent years. Discover how climate risks are reshaping real estate markets, from risin… Read more
Michael Jordan's iconic Highland Park mansion, Champions Point, is now available for co-ownership starting at $1M. This unique opportunity offers luxury amenities, com… Read more
L.A. wildfires in January 2025 have put over $40 billion in real estate at risk, highlighting housing shortages and displacement concerns. Discover how these events im… Read more
Discover five powerful tax-saving strategies that could help you legally save over $20,000 on your taxes. From maximizing retirement contributions to leveraging HSAs a… Read more
Let's find a time that suits you best to chat about your goals, show you how we work, and figure out how we can help you the most