Embracing the Resurgence of Typical Seasonal Home Price Trends

Lisa Mailhot  |  September 26, 2023

Buyers

Embracing the Resurgence of Typical Seasonal Home Price Trends

 

If you're contemplating a real estate move, you're likely pondering the state of home prices. Despite the media buzz, national home prices aren't in decline; rather, they're entering a phase of more conventional growth. To truly grasp this trend, here's the context you need.

In the realm of real estate, there are recurrent patterns known as seasonality. Spring reigns as the prime homebuying season, characterized by heightened market activity. Summer continues with robust training, but as calmer months approach, the vigor wanes. Home prices closely mirror this seasonality because prices appreciate most when demand peaks.

Hence, a dependable, long-term home price trend emerges. The graph below, based on Case-Shiller data from 1973 to 2022 (unadjusted to display seasonality), illustrates typical monthly home price fluctuations:

 

As the data illustrates, early in the year, home prices rise, though not as sharply as in the spring and summer months. January and February see less activity due to fewer moves in the colder season. As the market shifts into the peak homebuying season during spring, activity surges, resulting in more substantial price increases. Subsequently, as autumn and winter approach, activity eases, and price growth, while still appreciating, slows.

After several exceptional "unicorn" years, the return of seasonality signals the influence of today's elevated mortgage rates. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”

Why Understanding This Is Crucial

In the approaching months, media coverage will intensify regarding home prices, featuring industry jargon such as:

  • Appreciation: Signifying price increases.
  • Deceleration of appreciation: Indicates that prices are still rising, albeit at a slower, more moderate pace.
  • Depreciation: Suggesting price decreases.

Don't let the terminology bewilder you, nor allow misleading headlines to instill unnecessary apprehension. The breakneck pace of recent years' home price growth was unsustainable; a slowdown was inevitable. What we're witnessing is a deceleration of appreciation, not depreciation.

Remember, it's customary for home price growth to taper off as the year progresses. This by no means implies that home prices are plummeting; they're merely ascending at a more restrained rate.

Bottom Line

Despite fear-inducing headlines and confusion surrounding the state of home prices, the reality is straightforward. Home price appreciation is reverting to conventional seasonal patterns. If you have inquiries about local price trends, let's connect.

RECENT BLOG POSTS

Why Tiny Home Prices Are About to Surge—And What It Means for Orange County Buyers

New tariffs on Chinese imports are already causing sharp increases in tiny home and ADU prices. In high-cost regions like Orange County, this could significantly impac… Read more

The Hidden Risk in Buyer Love Letters (And How to Avoid It)

Buyer love letters might tug at heartstrings, but they can also tread dangerous legal ground. Learn the top three ways these letters could violate Fair Housing laws — … Read more

When Repairs Go Wrong: Can You Legally Withhold Rent in California?

Renters have more power than they think when it comes to repair issues in California. This blog breaks down your rights as a tenant, including when and how you can leg… Read more

Midwest Home Prices Surge Fastest in the Nation

The Midwest is on fire—and we’re not talking weather. Home prices in cities like Milwaukee and Detroit are soaring due to tight inventory and high demand. This blog di… Read more

Why Buyers Need Over $52K More Than Renters—and the Gap’s Growing

The income gap between renting and owning a home has surged to over $52,000 in 2025. While rent increases have slowed, home prices and mortgage rates remain high, maki… Read more

Gas Prices Drop, Inflation Slows—Here’s What That Could Mean for Your Mortgage

Inflation cooled in March thanks to falling gas prices, providing a temporary sigh of relief for mortgage markets. While rates aren't dropping just yet, lower pressure… Read more

Why Homebuyers Are Turning to Stocks for Their Down Payments

A new Redfin survey reveals that 1 in 5 homebuyers plan to sell stocks to fund their down payment. As market volatility shakes confidence, homeowners and renters alike… Read more

Why Strong Jobs Aren’t Sparking a Housing Comeback

Despite a strong March jobs report, new tariffs and rising economic uncertainty are casting a shadow over the housing market. Here’s how these national trends could pl… Read more

New MLS Rules Let Sellers Choose How to List

The National Association of Realtors® just introduced a new companion to its Clear Cooperation Policy: Multiple Listing Options for Sellers. This update offers sellers… Read more

We are excited to assist you in finding your perfect home

Let's find a time that suits you best to chat about your goals, show you how we work, and figure out how we can help you the most