The Rise of Climate-Safe Neighborhoods

Extreme weather events and rising insurance premiums are no longer future concerns—they’re impacting home values today. A recent study by First Street projects that certain "climate abandonment" zones will see steep home value declines, while others, known as "climate-resilient" zones, are set to thrive. This shift could affect where homeowners choose to buy or sell in the coming decades.

As a realtor in Orange County, staying ahead of these trends is essential. Here’s what you need to know about climate risk and real estate opportunities.

Areas to Watch: 'Climate Abandonment' Zones

First Street's report identifies areas with high climate risk where home values are expected to decline by an average of 6.2% through 2055. These regions face escalating insurance premiums and shrinking populations.

One of the hardest-hit areas is Fresno County, California, where home values are projected to drop 10.4% over the next 30 years, accompanied by a staggering 46% population decline. Other counties at risk include:

• Ocean County, NJ (-33% population change)

• Monmouth County, NJ (-32%)

• Sacramento County, CA (-28%)

• Jefferson County, AL (-26%)

“These are areas that are significantly impacted by climate risk and have a statistical relationship between that climate risk and negative population change,” explains Jeremy Porter, First Street's head of climate implications research.

In total, about 26% of U.S. neighborhoods could experience these challenges, with a projected population decline of 38% across those regions.

The Climate-Resilient Zones Poised for Growth

On a brighter note, "climate-resilient" zones are expected to see home values rise due to population growth and stable insurance premiums. Only about 5% of neighborhoods fall into this category, but these areas are projected to experience an average 10.8% increase in home prices by 2055.

Leading the pack is Dane County, WI, home to Madison, with a projected 13.5% home value appreciation. Other climate-resilient hotspots include:

• Denver County, CO

• Arapahoe County, CO

• Douglas County, NE

• Johnson County, KS

“For climate-resilient areas, [we expect] really positive impacts from growing population, relatively minor impact from increasing insurance,” says Porter.

These areas are becoming magnets for buyers looking to invest in long-term value, driven by low environmental risks and thriving local economies.

What About Risky-Growth Areas?

Interestingly, some areas with high climate risk continue to attract new residents despite the rising insurance costs. These "risky-growth" zones cover about 33% of the country and are projected to see a 76% population increase by 2055.

In these regions, the amenities, economic opportunities, and social factors outweigh climate concerns. However, while home values may grow in some cases, they are not expected to fully offset the drag caused by rising insurance premiums. In fact, home values in these areas may decline by 1.7% on average.

The top five risky-growth areas, based on projected population increases, are all in Texas:

• Fort Bend County

• Denton County

• Williamson County

• Travis County

• Montgomery County

“Ultimately, these are the areas we know have a lot of climate risk, but the economic, social, and political character of the communities are still pulling people in,” explains Porter.

The National Impact: $1.47 Trillion in Projected Home Value Losses

The report estimates that U.S. home values could collectively lose $1.47 trillion over the next 30 years due to climate risks, representing about 3% of the current total value of all residential properties.

However, Porter emphasizes that these trends vary significantly at the local level: “There are going to be communities where it's a much larger impact on their property values, and there’s going to be places that are going to see significant increases.”

First Street’s risk assessments are available on property listings through Realtor.com®, providing valuable insights for buyers and sellers alike.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

If you're considering buying or selling property, climate resilience is becoming a key factor to evaluate. Investing in areas with low climate risk and strong growth potential can protect your home’s long-term value. Conversely, buyers in higher-risk areas should be prepared for increased insurance premiums and potential challenges to property appreciation.

For those in Orange County, understanding how climate trends affect different neighborhoods can help you make smarter real estate decisions. Whether you’re buying your first home or planning your next investment, Whitestone Real Estate can guide you through this changing landscape.

The Bottomline

As climate risks reshape the real estate market, location matters more than ever. Knowing where to buy—and where to be cautious—can safeguard your investment and help you thrive in a changing world. If you’re looking for expert advice on real estate opportunities in Orange County, I am here to help. Let’s navigate the future of homeownership together!

Reference: Griffith, K. (2025, February 10). Home values to plunge in ‘climate abandonment’ zones—Here’s where to buy instead. Realtor.com.